Archive

All of our previous posts

Sentiment

Employer Health Costs Are Rising at a 9.5% Rate. The Compensation Squeeze Is Getting Harder to Hide.

Jul 20, 2026

•

2 min read

Employer Health Costs Are Rising at a 9.5% Rate. The Compensation Squeeze Is Getting Harder to Hide.

The U.S. employer health-care cost trend is projected to reach 9.5% in 2026, one of the highest levels in years. Nearly half of surveyed employers rank changes to employee cost sharing among their top three cost-control strategies for the year. The pressure is moving through the full compensation package, not just the wage line.

Positioning

Small-Business Bankruptcies Rose Far Faster Than Overall Business Filings. The Gap Is Getting Harder to Ignore.

Jul 18, 2026

•

3 min read

Small-Business Bankruptcies Rose Far Faster Than Overall Business Filings. The Gap Is Getting Harder to Ignore.

Small-business bankruptcy filings rose 67% in the first quarter of 2026, climbing to 833 from 499 a year earlier. Overall commercial bankruptcies rose 14%. The pressure is building fastest among smaller private companies.

Rates

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

Jul 16, 2026

•

3 min read

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May 2026, nearly twice the 0.5% increase economists expected. Gasoline prices lifted the headline, but sales excluding gas stations still rose 0.7%. The report showed continued demand alongside a widening divide between stronger and weaker categories.

Liquidity

The Saving Rate Held at 3.0% in May. Household Spending Has Less Backup.

Jul 15, 2026

•

2 min read

The Saving Rate Held at 3.0% in May. Household Spending Has Less Backup.

The U.S. personal saving rate was 3.0% in May, unchanged from April, while consumer spending rose 0.7%. Revolving credit had increased at a 10.4% annual rate in April. The data were separating continued spending from the strength of the household buffer behind it.

Positioning

U.S. Seat Capacity Fell 1.0% in July. Record Travel Did Not Mean Cheaper Flights.

Jul 13, 2026

•

3 min read

U.S. Seat Capacity Fell 1.0% in July. Record Travel Did Not Mean Cheaper Flights.

AAA projected 5.85 million domestic air travelers for the July 4 holiday period, a record and up 0.2% from last year. Airline fares rose 26.7% year over year in May, while scheduled U.S. seat capacity for July fell 1.0% from a year earlier. The tape was separating travel demand from the limits of available supply.

Sentiment

The Fed Modeled $708 Billion in Bank Losses. Capital Still Stayed Well Above the Floor.

Jul 11, 2026

•

3 min read

The Fed Modeled $708 Billion in Bank Losses. Capital Still Stayed Well Above the Floor.

On June 24, all 32 large U.S. banks stayed above minimum capital requirements after absorbing $708 billion in modeled losses. Their aggregate common equity tier 1 ratio fell from 12.8% to 11.2%, while several banks announced larger dividends and buybacks. The tape was rewarding balance-sheet strength before real credit losses fully arrive.

Liquidity

Emergency Demand Cuts Followed a 160-Gigawatt Peak. The AI Buildout Is Testing the Grid.

Jul 9, 2026

•

3 min read

Emergency Demand Cuts Followed a 160-Gigawatt Peak. The AI Buildout Is Testing the Grid.

America’s largest power grid served a preliminary 161.9 gigawatts on July 1, 2026, then activated about 6 gigawatts of demand response during the July 2 peak. Wholesale prices in key areas exceeded $2,500 per megawatt-hour. The grid was separating planned AI spending from the physical capacity needed to support it.

Liquidity

A New Digital Dollar Drew Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock and Coinbase. A Leading Issuer Fell 18%.

Jul 8, 2026

•

3 min read

A New Digital Dollar Drew Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock and Coinbase. A Leading Issuer Fell 18%.

More than 140 companies backed the Open USD stablecoin network on June 30, and shares of USDC issuer Circle fell 18%. The group includes major payment networks, financial firms, technology companies and crypto platforms, and it plans to share reserve earnings with participants. The tape was repricing who controls distribution and who keeps the income behind digital dollars.

Positioning

Unemployment Fell to 4.2%, but 720,000 People Left the Labor Force.

Jul 6, 2026

•

3 min read

Unemployment Fell to 4.2%, but 720,000 People Left the Labor Force.

The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 economists expected. Unemployment still fell to 4.2% as 720,000 people left the labor force. The tape was separating a stable unemployment rate from a weaker labor base.