July was a job loss, and nobody said so at the time

July was revised to a job loss. Nobody read it that way at the time.

July was a month of job losses. That is not how it was reported at the time.

The Labor Department revised July payrolls on Friday from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. August came down too, from 162,000 to 133,000.

Those two corrections removed 60,000 jobs from the record. They arrived in the same release that reported September.

September itself added 29,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent, inside the 4.1 to 4.3 band it has held since March.

The household survey counted 7.1 million people unemployed. Participation held at 61.8 percent and the employment to population ratio at 59.2 percent.

The coverage treated the September figure as the news and the revisions as housekeeping. The ordering was backward.

Each of those two revisions was about the size of the September print itself. Three months that now read minus 10,000, plus 133,000, and plus 29,000 average about 51,000 a month.

That average is what the economy actually produced over the summer. It was not available to anyone reading the reports as they came out.

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This is a print-revision trap. The first estimate of a month is built from the employers who answer the survey first.

More answers keep arriving for two months after. Late reporters are not a random sample of the rest.

Smaller firms file later. Firms that are shrinking or closing file later still.

So the first print leans on the businesses in good enough shape to do their paperwork on time. The correction arrives when the others are counted.

In a steady economy the two groups look alike and the revision is small. In a slowing one they do not, and the revisions run in one direction.

Both of the last two revisions ran down. August has been cut once so far, and one more estimate of it is still to come.

Nothing in that makes the Labor Department wrong. The agency publishes the revision schedule in advance and marks the first estimates as preliminary.

The trap is in how the numbers get used. A first print is treated as a measurement when it is a partial count.

The story written around it is finished before the count is.

A private payroll processor read September higher. ADP put private hiring at 90,000 for the month, against the government's private count of 46,000.

Government payrolls shrank over the same month. That is how 46,000 private jobs becomes 29,000 across the economy.

Inside September the gains were narrow. Health care added 17,000, construction 11,000, and manufacturing 9,000, while financial activities shed 7,000.

Pay barely moved. Average hourly earnings rose five cents, or 0.1 percent, to 37.81 dollars, and are up 3.0 percent over twelve months.

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The size of the next two monthly revisions. Each Employment Situation report restates the two prior months as more survey responses arrive. Revisions that keep running down would confirm late reporters are weaker than early ones, and revisions that turn up would clear the first prints. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Small business hiring plans. Small firms are the ones that file late, which makes their own reporting an early read on what the revisions will find. Falling plans would point to further downward corrections, and rising plans would point the other way. (Source: National Federation of Independent Business)

The private payroll count built from processing records. This series is assembled from actual pay runs rather than survey responses, so it does not share the government's late-reporting problem. Agreement between the two would narrow the uncertainty, and a persistent gap would widen it. (Source: ADP Research)

The freshest number in a jobs report is the least settled one in it. Age is what makes a payroll figure reliable, and attention goes to the youngest line on the page.

Talk soon,
The Playbook Daily