Ninety thousand jobs, and one industry made most of them

Education and health supplied three fifths of it. Finance cut.

Private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, ADP reported on Wednesday. The figure beat forecasts and arrived as a recovery from a weak August.

August itself was revised down, from 38,000 to 36,000. Against that base, September looked like the labor market finding its feet again.

ADP's chief economist called it a rebound in job creation after a three-month slowdown. Pay growth, she added, remained solid.

The report carries a table underneath the headline. Education and health services added 55,000 jobs.

That one industry supplied roughly three fifths of all private jobs created last month. Leisure and hospitality added another 22,000.

Those two lines together come to 77,000 of the 90,000. Every other industry in the survey netted 13,000 between them.

Two of those industries went backward. Financial activities shed 16,000 jobs and professional and business services shed 11,000.

Trade, transportation, and utilities finished the month at zero. Information added 3,000.

The goods side was not the weak link. Construction added 15,000 and manufacturing added 17,000, for 31,000 between them.

You didn’t vote for this…

Something strange is happening to your money.

It wasn't voted on. It wasn't debated in the Senate. And most Americans have no idea it's even taking place but…

President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

Not with crypto. Not with a digital currency. Something far bigger than that – and it's already been signed and sealed in the back rooms of D.C., ready to be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Bypassing every legal and political channel under the guise of "national security," Trump has enacted this total money reset using a landmark executive order (1421).

Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, whether you support this new money or not, it doesn't matter.

Soon, every U.S. citizen will be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill their gas tank, buy groceries, and pay medical bills.

Which is why I've produced a critical new documentary laying out exactly what Trump's New Dollar means for your savings, your investments, and your family's financial future.

Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including the name of a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge as a result.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

On one side, it minted an average of 1,300 new millionaires a day for over half a century. And on the other… the folks left behind, drowning in debt, with no idea how to use America’s new money to create wealth.

As Trump rolls out his new dollar, the question is:

Which side will you be on?

PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

This is a health-office divergence. Hiring in care and education runs on how many people need treatment and schooling.

That demand does not wait for the economy to improve. Hiring in finance and professional services runs on billable work and deal flow.

One engine is demographic and the other is cyclical. In September they ran in opposite directions.

A payroll total adds both engines and reports the sum. The sum was positive because the demographic side was large enough to cover the cyclical side and leave 90,000 over.

Nothing in that arithmetic is wrong. The number is what it says it is.

What it does not say is that the industries most sensitive to business conditions were cutting in the same month. Finance and professional services are where a slowdown shows up first, because firms there adjust headcount faster than hospitals do.

A hospital staffs to its patient load. A consulting firm staffs to its signed contracts.

Pay tells a quieter version of the same thing. Base pay for workers who stayed in their jobs rose 3.0 percent over the year.

Those who changed jobs got 4.8 percent. Employers are still paying up to pull people across.

The spread is wider on gross pay. Stayers gained 4.4 percent there and changers gained 7.3.

That is not the pattern of a labor market with slack everywhere. It is the pattern of one with slack in some rooms and none in others.

Concentration like this is visible in the monthly report only if the reader opens the table. The headline carries one number, and the number is a blend of conditions that are not blending in practice.

For months, I've been telling my readers that China's economy is cornered.

Now that story has been officially exposed:

China peaked in 2021, and AI can't save them.

"Official" 5% annual growth rate numbers coming out of Beijing are now considered false...

Independent economists have estimated their real growth is actually zero...

And that China is now a country in decline.

Their population is crashing... debt ballooning...

Foreign investment fleeing.

Their last hope? AI exports.

But Trump's "shadow committee" is cutting that thread as we speak.

If you thought the Iran War was about anything other than permanently crippling China...

Think again.

Here's what the Iran War is really about. >>

And when a superpower falls, the money doesn't disappear.

It moves.

Last time, it moved through Exxon - handing investors 7,000%.

This time, it moves through a company you haven't heard of - yet.

The employment diffusion index. The government's monthly jobs report publishes the share of industries adding workers, which is the direct measure of how broad the hiring is. A rising share would show the base widening beyond care and hospitality, and a falling share would show it narrowing further. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Announced job cuts by industry. These are counted monthly from company statements, and they register before the cuts reach payroll data. Rising announcements in finance and professional services would confirm the cyclical side contracting, and a decline would mark September as one month. (Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas)

The employment trends index. This combines several labor measures into one series built to move ahead of payroll growth. A decline would indicate the breadth problem spreading, and a rise would indicate the cyclical industries turning. (Source: The Conference Board)

When one industry supplies most of a month's hiring, the total is describing that industry. It is not describing the country.

Talk soon,
The Playbook Daily