Small-Business Optimism Reached 99.8 as 37.6% of the S&P 500 Stayed in 10 Stocks
On August 11, NFIB reported that small-business optimism rose 2.4 points to 99.8 in July. The reading moved above its 52-year average of 98.0 and reached an 11-month high. The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks made up 37.6% of the index at the end of July.
The key observation is that a narrow stock market can exist alongside a broader rise in business confidence.
Today’s Setup
NFIB reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose from 97.4 in June to 99.8 in July. Eight of the index’s 10 parts improved.
Hiring plans made the biggest contribution to the gain. A seasonally adjusted net 20% of owners planned to add jobs over the next three months, up 9 points from June and the highest reading since October 2022.
Business spending plans also rose. Twenty-five percent planned to spend on equipment, property, or other business assets over the next three to six months, up 5 points from June.
Hiring remained hard. Thirty-six percent had jobs they could not fill, up 4 points and the highest share since June 2025. Labor quality or availability was the top problem for 27% of owners.
S&P Dow Jones Indices reported that the 10 largest S&P 500 stocks made up 37.6% of the index as of July 31.
The Pentagon is desperate
The United States is losing the most important arms race of the century.
Russia and China already have hypersonic weapons.
Missiles that travel so fast that existing radar systems cannot even track them.
The Pentagon has officially admitted we are in third place.
And they are scrambling to catch up.
The hypersonic research budget has nearly tripled in just five years.
But there is a massive problem.
The military is building these weapons faster than they can build the places to test them.
My private intelligence contact just found the company the government is paying to solve this crisis.
It is a tiny, publicly traded company operating out of Florida.
They have a fleet of launch vehicles capable of testing hypersonic technology at extreme altitudes.
Lockheed Martin, GE Aerospace, and the United States Air Force are already paying them.
The stock is currently trading under $5.
But not for long.
Because this company also launches commercial satellites, and they are approaching a major licensing milestone.
When that happens, my “Financial 007” expects their valuation to hit $1.7 billion…
Which would mean a 997% gain for early investors.
The government money is already flowing. The contracts are signed.
P.S. When the military is desperate, the companies providing the solutions get paid first.
What Kind of Day This Usually Is
This is a breadth check.
The S&P 500 gives its biggest stocks the most weight. Small businesses face a different mix of forces: local demand, hiring, wages, credit, taxes, and daily costs.
When confidence improves there, it adds information that a large-stock index cannot show on its own.
What Experienced Investors Watch First
One key signal is whether better confidence shows up in plans to hire and spend. Both rose in July. That gives the jump in optimism more support than a change in mood alone.
Another signal is whether businesses can carry out those plans. More than one-third still had jobs they could not fill. Better confidence and tight labor can exist at the same time.
Common Misreads
A common misread is treating the S&P 500 as a full map of the economy. It is not. Its biggest stocks have the most influence because they have the most market value.
The reverse can also mislead. An 11-month high in optimism does not mean small businesses face easy conditions. NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 2 points to 91 in July. Expectations for stronger real sales also slipped.
The cleaner read comes from the mix of signals.
The Pentagon Asked This Company to Censor Their Presentation.
Their presentation had one slide that listed the only organizations on earth capable of Mach 2 sustained flight: The militaries of China, Russia, France, and Great Britain… And them.
A tiny company most investors have never heard of. The Department of Defense asked them to take it down.
Robert Kiyosaki's "Financial 007" says the government's reaction tells you everything about what this company is actually worth.
Unlock the Private Research Dossier.
The Playbook Lens
Focus on the breadth of confidence, not the concentration of market value.
The S&P 500 shows where market value is concentrated. The NFIB survey shows how small firms view hiring, spending, sales, and business conditions.
In July, small-business confidence moved above its long-term average. Hiring plans rose. Spending plans rose. Labor shortages remained a problem.
Those facts can sit together. Market value can stay concentrated even as confidence spreads across a wider part of the economy.
Carry This Forward
A stock index shows where market value sits. It does not show every part of the economy. July’s small-business report adds a wider view: confidence and hiring plans improved, while labor shortages and uncertainty remained high.
The economy can look broader than the market without looking uniformly strong.
Talk soon,
The Playbook Daily
