The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Every figure matched the forecast. The annual core rate fell. The read moved anyway.

Gasoline prices rose 27.4 percent over the twelve months through August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy as a whole rose 16.3 percent.

Those lines sit inside the August consumer price index, released September 11. The headline index rose 0.4 percent for the month and 3.4 percent over the year.

Coverage read the report as sealing the case for an increase at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15 and 16. Inflation had persisted, and the committee now had its justification.

The key observation is that the annual core rate fell while the headline held, and the full gap between the two sits in energy.

Seven times since 1933, the gold market has come within days of breaking.

Roosevelt. Johnson. Nixon. Carter. Bush. Obama. Trump.

Every one was in office when it happened.

And every break landed on the same kind of date. The day paper holders can demand the actual metal.

Roosevelt repriced gold overnight. Nixon shut the gold window. In 2020 they invented a new contract on the fly.

The next of those dates is September 30th.

What I think happens next >>>

I've found the company I want to own before it arrives.

The downward slide has begun.

According to new research from Bloomberg, the U.S. dollar’s share of global reserves has just fallen to the lowest level this century.

The framing was that prices refused to come down. Three point four percent for a second straight month.

The monthly pace was four times July's. The committee had spent the summer arguing about whether to tighten, and here was the case handed to it.

Every one of those figures matched what forecasters had already published. The monthly headline rate of 0.4 percent matched the LSEG consensus, and the annual rate of 3.4 percent matched it as well.

The annual rate also held exactly where July left it. Nothing in the top line accelerated year over year.

Core moved the other way. Core prices rose 2.4 percent over the twelve months through August, down from 2.5 percent in July.

The distance between 3.4 and 2.4 is a full percentage point. Energy accounts for close to all of it.

Energy prices rose 2.1 percent in August alone. Gasoline rose 3.9 percent in the month.

Almost everything else barely moved. Shelter rose 0.3 percent for the month and 3.0 percent for the year, and food rose 0.1 percent.

Two large categories fell outright. Medical care was down 0.2 percent in the month and motor vehicle insurance was down 0.8 percent.

This is an energy-core divergence.

Energy prices move on supply, shipping routes and refinery capacity. Core prices move on wages, rents and margins.

The two run on separate clocks. When energy moves far enough and fast enough, it carries the headline away from the core without changing what sits underneath.

The data is consistent with a headline pulled by one volatile input rather than by broad price pressure.

What the release does not settle is whether energy stays long enough to reach wages and rents. That is the channel that would turn it into core.

You didn’t vote for this…

Something strange is happening to your money.

It wasn't voted on. It wasn't debated in the Senate. And most Americans have no idea it's even taking place but…

President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

Not with crypto. Not with a digital currency. Something far bigger than that – and it's already been signed and sealed in the back rooms of D.C., ready to be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Bypassing every legal and political channel under the guise of "national security," Trump has enacted this total money reset using a landmark executive order (1421).

Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, whether you support this new money or not, it doesn't matter.

Soon, every U.S. citizen will be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill their gas tank, buy groceries, and pay medical bills.

Which is why I've produced a critical new documentary laying out exactly what Trump's New Dollar means for your savings, your investments, and your family's financial future.

Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including the name of a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge as a result.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

On one side, it minted an average of 1,300 new millionaires a day for over half a century. And on the other… the folks left behind, drowning in debt, with no idea how to use America’s new money to create wealth.

As Trump rolls out his new dollar, the question is:

Which side will you be on?

PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

Gasoline inventories, in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report published each Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration. Stocks are the quantity behind the pump price, and they move before the price does. Falling inventories would mean the energy pressure in the headline has further to run. A build would mean the input driving the gap is easing.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, in the Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The August reading is scheduled for September 30. This is the measure the Federal Reserve actually targets, and it weights energy differently than the consumer price index does. A core PCE reading that tracks core CPI lower would confirm the divergence. One that rises instead would mean the two measures disagree about what is underneath.

One-year inflation expectations, in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The August reading was 4.3 percent, up from 4.2 percent in July. This is the transmission channel. Energy becomes core when households treat pump prices as the general rate and bargain accordingly. Expectations climbing would mean that channel is opening. Expectations flat or falling would mean households are reading gasoline as gasoline.

A price index averages things that do not move for the same reasons. When one line runs 27 percent and the rest run 2, the average describes neither.

Talk soon,
The Playbook Daily