Archive

All of our previous posts

Positioning

The Pipeline That Reports Two Different Years

Sep 19, 2026

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4 min read

The Pipeline That Reports Two Different Years

Starts got the headline. Completions got the story.

Liquidity

Sep 17, 2026

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4 min read

Receipt-volume drift

Gas station sales grew. Gasoline volumes did not.

Sentiment

The Factory Floor Got Busier and Shipped Less

Sep 16, 2026

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3 min read

The Factory Floor Got Busier and Shipped Less

Shipments went negative. The workweek hit its highest level in nearly five years. Both numbers came out of the same survey.

Positioning

Two Kinds of Borrowing Went Opposite Ways. Only the Sum Made the Headline.

Sep 14, 2026

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3 min read

Two Kinds of Borrowing Went Opposite Ways. Only the Sum Made the Headline.

Cards grew at 2.5 percent after 6.0 percent in June. The total accelerated anyway.

Rates

The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Sep 12, 2026

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4 min read

The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Every figure matched the forecast. The annual core rate fell. The read moved anyway.

Positioning

Housing Supply Hit Its Highest Level Since 2020. Nothing Else Moved.

Sep 10, 2026

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3 min read

Housing Supply Hit Its Highest Level Since 2020. Nothing Else Moved.

Active listings rose 2.7% from last August. Days on market, months of supply and the median price all sat still.

Rates

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Wages Still Lost to Prices.

Sep 9, 2026

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3 min read

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Wages Still Lost to Prices.

Two categories produced 101,000 of the 162,000 jobs. The best-paying one shed 23,000.

Rates

September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.

Sep 7, 2026

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3 min read

September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.

Markets pushed the implied chance of a September Fed rate hike as high as 60% on August 28, up from 35% before Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 4.34%. A market focused on eventual rate cuts suddenly had to give more weight to the opposite path.

Positioning

A $14.5 Billion Merger Died. Both Stocks Rose.

Sep 5, 2026

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3 min read

A $14.5 Billion Merger Died. Both Stocks Rose.

Solstice Advanced Materials and Element Solutions ended their $14.5 billion deal on August 27 after shareholder feedback favored keeping the companies independent. Solstice jumped 15% after hours, while Element gained 4%. The reaction raised a useful question: how much was greater scale actually worth?