September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.
Markets pushed the implied chance of a September Fed rate hike as high as 60% on August 28, up from 35% before Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 4.34%. A market focused on eventual rate cuts suddenly had to give more weight to the opposite path.
