Rates

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Jun 22, 2026

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3 min read

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Spot gold traded near $4,158 an ounce on June 19, about 25% below its January record, after the Fed's hawkish hold pushed real yields higher. The tape was testing whether gold demand rested on more than falling rates and immediate fear.

Austin Payne

Rates

Jun 17, 2026

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3 min read

Home Prices Hit $429,300 While Mortgage Rates Stayed High. The Affordability Test Is Still Here.

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.52% on June 11, 2026. NAR reported the median existing-home price reached $429,300 in May, up 1.3% from a year earlier. The housing tape was not clearing through lower prices; it was testing how much payment pressure buyers could absorb.

Austin Payne

Rates

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

Jun 6, 2026

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4 min read

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

On June 5, nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, roughly double expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.53% and stocks sold off, with the Nasdaq down more than 4%. A strong labor market became a higher hurdle for equities.

Austin Payne

Rates

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

May 20, 2026

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3 min read

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

Kevin Warsh's confirmation was the most divisive in Fed history at 54-45. He inherits inflation at 3.8%, oil above $105, and a committee that had four dissents at its last meeting. His first meeting is June 16.

Austin Payne

Rates

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

May 4, 2026

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3 min read

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

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4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

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4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

Austin Payne

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

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4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

Austin Payne

Rates

Jun 22, 2026

•

3 min read

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Austin Payne

Rates

Jun 17, 2026

•

3 min read

Home Prices Hit $429,300 While Mortgage Rates Stayed High. The Affordability Test Is Still Here.

Austin Payne

Rates

Jun 6, 2026

•

4 min read

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

Austin Payne

Rates

May 20, 2026

•

3 min read

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

Austin Payne

Rates

May 4, 2026

•

3 min read

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

•

4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

•

4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

Austin Payne

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

•

4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

Austin Payne