Rates

A $432 Billion July Deficit. Yet the U.S. Credit Outlook Stayed Stable.

Aug 17, 2026

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3 min read

A $432 Billion July Deficit. Yet the U.S. Credit Outlook Stayed Stable.

The U.S. posted a record $432 billion July deficit, Treasury reported August 12. One day later, Fitch kept the sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. The contrast shows how weak fiscal math can coexist with deep financial strength.

Austin Payne

Rates

Labor’s Share Fell to 52.9%. Productivity Gains Are Flowing Unevenly.

Aug 12, 2026

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3 min read

Labor’s Share Fell to 52.9%. Productivity Gains Are Flowing Unevenly.

Labor’s share of nonfarm business output fell to 52.9% in the second quarter, the lowest since records began in 1947. Productivity rose 2.2% from a year earlier while real hourly compensation slipped 0.1%. The economy is producing more without distributing those gains evenly.

Austin Payne

Sentiment

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%. The Price Measure Jumped to 5.7%.

Aug 6, 2026

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3 min read

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%. The Price Measure Jumped to 5.7%.

Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first. The price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 5.7%, while private domestic demand strengthened. Rising Treasury yields showed that slower growth did not settle the inflation question.

Austin Payne

Rates

IMAX Revenue Hit a Record. The Premium Experience Economy Is Still Working.

Aug 1, 2026

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3 min read

IMAX Revenue Hit a Record. The Premium Experience Economy Is Still Working.

IMAX generated record revenue in 2025, with global box office from IMAX screens reaching a new high. At the same time, consumer spending remains selective across many categories, creating a gap between ordinary purchases and experiences that feel meaningfully different. The tension is not just demand, but which businesses can create a reason to pay more.

Austin Payne

Sentiment

Used-Car Costs Are Rising Before They Reach the Driveway.

Jul 23, 2026

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3 min read

Used-Car Costs Are Rising Before They Reach the Driveway.

Wholesale used-vehicle prices ended June 2.1% above a year earlier, while the consumer price index for used cars fell 1.8%. The split suggests price pressure is rebuilding upstream even as buyers are still seeing relief.

Austin Payne

Rates

AI’s Infrastructure Bill Is Reaching Beyond Tech. One Midwest Factory’s Power Costs Rose 90%.

Jul 22, 2026

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3 min read

AI’s Infrastructure Bill Is Reaching Beyond Tech. One Midwest Factory’s Power Costs Rose 90%.

The AI buildout is starting to reshape power costs far beyond the tech sector. One Midwest manufacturer said its electricity costs rose 90% in 2025, while industrial power prices in one state were up 26% from a year earlier by April 2026, versus 5.5% nationwide. The bigger question is how much of AI’s infrastructure bill gets passed through the rest of the economy.

Austin Payne

Rates

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

Jul 16, 2026

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3 min read

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May 2026, nearly twice the 0.5% increase economists expected. Gasoline prices lifted the headline, but sales excluding gas stations still rose 0.7%. The report showed continued demand alongside a widening divide between stronger and weaker categories.

Austin Payne

Rates

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Jun 22, 2026

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3 min read

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Spot gold traded near $4,158 an ounce on June 19, about 25% below its January record, after the Fed's hawkish hold pushed real yields higher. The tape was testing whether gold demand rested on more than falling rates and immediate fear.

Austin Payne

Rates

Jun 17, 2026

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3 min read

Home Prices Hit $429,300 While Mortgage Rates Stayed High. The Affordability Test Is Still Here.

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.52% on June 11, 2026. NAR reported the median existing-home price reached $429,300 in May, up 1.3% from a year earlier. The housing tape was not clearing through lower prices; it was testing how much payment pressure buyers could absorb.

Austin Payne

Rates

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

Jun 6, 2026

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4 min read

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

On June 5, nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, roughly double expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.53% and stocks sold off, with the Nasdaq down more than 4%. A strong labor market became a higher hurdle for equities.

Austin Payne

Rates

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

May 20, 2026

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3 min read

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

Kevin Warsh's confirmation was the most divisive in Fed history at 54-45. He inherits inflation at 3.8%, oil above $105, and a committee that had four dissents at its last meeting. His first meeting is June 16.

Austin Payne

Rates

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

May 4, 2026

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3 min read

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

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4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

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4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

Austin Payne

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

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4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

•

4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

Austin Payne

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

•

4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

Austin Payne

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

•

4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

Austin Payne