Rates

The Reading at a Four-Year High Is Not in the Headline

Oct 7, 2026

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5 min read

The Reading at a Four-Year High Is Not in the Headline

Four sub-indexes make the number everyone quotes. Prices is not one of them.

Rates

The quarter that slowed, accelerated, and held steady

Oct 1, 2026

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3 min read

The quarter that slowed, accelerated, and held steady

Output says 1.5 percent. Income says 2.2 percent. Same economy.

Rates

Two years of easing, and the bill went up

Sep 23, 2026

•

3 min read

Two years of easing, and the bill went up

A third of the debt reprices this year. The Fed does not set the schedule.

Rates

The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Sep 12, 2026

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4 min read

The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Every figure matched the forecast. The annual core rate fell. The read moved anyway.

Rates

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Wages Still Lost to Prices.

Sep 9, 2026

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3 min read

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Wages Still Lost to Prices.

Two categories produced 101,000 of the 162,000 jobs. The best-paying one shed 23,000.

Rates

September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.

Sep 7, 2026

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3 min read

September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.

Markets pushed the implied chance of a September Fed rate hike as high as 60% on August 28, up from 35% before Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 4.34%. A market focused on eventual rate cuts suddenly had to give more weight to the opposite path.

Rates

Washington Now Owes $40.047 Trillion. Carrying It Costs $1.1 Trillion.

Aug 29, 2026

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3 min read

Washington Now Owes $40.047 Trillion. Carrying It Costs $1.1 Trillion.

U.S. federal debt reached $40.047 trillion on August 18. Interest costs are running near $1.1 trillion and have passed Medicare as the government’s second-largest budget item. The debt milestone matters less than the growing cost of carrying it.

Rates

A $432 Billion July Deficit. Yet the U.S. Credit Outlook Stayed Stable.

Aug 17, 2026

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3 min read

A $432 Billion July Deficit. Yet the U.S. Credit Outlook Stayed Stable.

The U.S. posted a record $432 billion July deficit, Treasury reported August 12. One day later, Fitch kept the sovereign rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. The contrast shows how weak fiscal math can coexist with deep financial strength.

Rates

Labor’s Share Fell to 52.9%. Productivity Gains Are Flowing Unevenly.

Aug 12, 2026

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3 min read

Labor’s Share Fell to 52.9%. Productivity Gains Are Flowing Unevenly.

Labor’s share of nonfarm business output fell to 52.9% in the second quarter, the lowest since records began in 1947. Productivity rose 2.2% from a year earlier while real hourly compensation slipped 0.1%. The economy is producing more without distributing those gains evenly.

Sentiment

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%. The Price Measure Jumped to 5.7%.

Aug 6, 2026

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3 min read

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%. The Price Measure Jumped to 5.7%.

Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first. The price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 5.7%, while private domestic demand strengthened. Rising Treasury yields showed that slower growth did not settle the inflation question.

Rates

IMAX Revenue Hit a Record. The Premium Experience Economy Is Still Working.

Aug 1, 2026

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3 min read

IMAX Revenue Hit a Record. The Premium Experience Economy Is Still Working.

IMAX generated record revenue in 2025, with global box office from IMAX screens reaching a new high. At the same time, consumer spending remains selective across many categories, creating a gap between ordinary purchases and experiences that feel meaningfully different. The tension is not just demand, but which businesses can create a reason to pay more.

Sentiment

Used-Car Costs Are Rising Before They Reach the Driveway.

Jul 23, 2026

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3 min read

Used-Car Costs Are Rising Before They Reach the Driveway.

Wholesale used-vehicle prices ended June 2.1% above a year earlier, while the consumer price index for used cars fell 1.8%. The split suggests price pressure is rebuilding upstream even as buyers are still seeing relief.

Rates

AI’s Infrastructure Bill Is Reaching Beyond Tech. One Midwest Factory’s Power Costs Rose 90%.

Jul 22, 2026

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3 min read

AI’s Infrastructure Bill Is Reaching Beyond Tech. One Midwest Factory’s Power Costs Rose 90%.

The AI buildout is starting to reshape power costs far beyond the tech sector. One Midwest manufacturer said its electricity costs rose 90% in 2025, while industrial power prices in one state were up 26% from a year earlier by April 2026, versus 5.5% nationwide. The bigger question is how much of AI’s infrastructure bill gets passed through the rest of the economy.

Rates

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

Jul 16, 2026

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3 min read

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May 2026, nearly twice the 0.5% increase economists expected. Gasoline prices lifted the headline, but sales excluding gas stations still rose 0.7%. The report showed continued demand alongside a widening divide between stronger and weaker categories.

Rates

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Jun 22, 2026

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3 min read

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

Spot gold traded near $4,158 an ounce on June 19, about 25% below its January record, after the Fed's hawkish hold pushed real yields higher. The tape was testing whether gold demand rested on more than falling rates and immediate fear.

Rates

Jun 17, 2026

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3 min read

Home Prices Hit $429,300 While Mortgage Rates Stayed High. The Affordability Test Is Still Here.

The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.52% on June 11, 2026. NAR reported the median existing-home price reached $429,300 in May, up 1.3% from a year earlier. The housing tape was not clearing through lower prices; it was testing how much payment pressure buyers could absorb.

Rates

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

Jun 6, 2026

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4 min read

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

On June 5, nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, roughly double expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.53% and stocks sold off, with the Nasdaq down more than 4%. A strong labor market became a higher hurdle for equities.

Rates

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

May 20, 2026

•

3 min read

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

Kevin Warsh's confirmation was the most divisive in Fed history at 54-45. He inherits inflation at 3.8%, oil above $105, and a committee that had four dissents at its last meeting. His first meeting is June 16.

Rates

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

May 4, 2026

•

3 min read

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

•

4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

•

4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

•

4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

Rates

Oct 7, 2026

•

5 min read

The Reading at a Four-Year High Is Not in the Headline

Four sub-indexes make the number everyone quotes. Prices is not one of them.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Oct 1, 2026

•

3 min read

The quarter that slowed, accelerated, and held steady

Output says 1.5 percent. Income says 2.2 percent. Same economy.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Sep 23, 2026

•

3 min read

Two years of easing, and the bill went up

A third of the debt reprices this year. The Fed does not set the schedule.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Sep 12, 2026

•

4 min read

The Whole Acceleration Fit in One Line of the Report

Every figure matched the forecast. The annual core rate fell. The read moved anyway.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Sep 9, 2026

•

3 min read

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Wages Still Lost to Prices.

Two categories produced 101,000 of the 162,000 jobs. The best-paying one shed 23,000.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Sep 7, 2026

•

3 min read

September Hike Odds Jumped From 35% to as High as 60%. The Fed Debate Flipped.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Aug 29, 2026

•

3 min read

Washington Now Owes $40.047 Trillion. Carrying It Costs $1.1 Trillion.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Aug 17, 2026

•

3 min read

A $432 Billion July Deficit. Yet the U.S. Credit Outlook Stayed Stable.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Aug 12, 2026

•

3 min read

Labor’s Share Fell to 52.9%. Productivity Gains Are Flowing Unevenly.

The Playbook Daily

Sentiment

Aug 6, 2026

•

3 min read

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%. The Price Measure Jumped to 5.7%.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Aug 1, 2026

•

3 min read

IMAX Revenue Hit a Record. The Premium Experience Economy Is Still Working.

The Playbook Daily

Sentiment

Jul 23, 2026

•

3 min read

Used-Car Costs Are Rising Before They Reach the Driveway.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Jul 22, 2026

•

3 min read

AI’s Infrastructure Bill Is Reaching Beyond Tech. One Midwest Factory’s Power Costs Rose 90%.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Jul 16, 2026

•

3 min read

Online and Auto Sales Rose While Restaurant Sales Slipped. Consumer Demand Is Splitting by Category.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Jun 22, 2026

•

3 min read

Gold Has Fallen 25% From Its January Record. The Larger Signal Has Not Disappeared.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Jun 17, 2026

•

3 min read

Home Prices Hit $429,300 While Mortgage Rates Stayed High. The Affordability Test Is Still Here.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Jun 6, 2026

•

4 min read

A Strong Jobs Report Pushed the 10-Year to 4.53%. Stocks Treated It as a Burden.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

May 20, 2026

•

3 min read

The Most Divided Fed Since 1992 Just Got a New Chair. That Changes Less Than You Think.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

May 4, 2026

•

3 min read

When the Central Bank Stops Speaking With One Voice

The Fed held rates steady today, but the 8-4 vote was anything but routine. Three officials wanted to remove the easing bias entirely, and that changes the picture.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Apr 14, 2026

•

4 min read

Rate Volatility Is Becoming the Story

Early to mid April price action shows increasing sensitivity to intraday swings in Treasury yields, not just their level.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Apr 11, 2026

•

4 min read

Rates Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

Early April price action shows equities reacting more directly to Treasury yield moves again.

The Playbook Daily

Rates

Mar 6, 2026

•

4 min read

When Yields Drift but Don’t Resolve

Treasury markets are pausing after repricing — a familiar environment for positioning resets.

The Playbook Daily