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Liquidity

The Saving Rate Held at 3.0% in May. Household Spending Has Less Backup.

Jul 15, 2026

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2 min read

The Saving Rate Held at 3.0% in May. Household Spending Has Less Backup.

The U.S. personal saving rate was 3.0% in May, unchanged from April, while consumer spending rose 0.7%. Revolving credit had increased at a 10.4% annual rate in April. The data were separating continued spending from the strength of the household buffer behind it.

Austin Payne

Positioning

U.S. Seat Capacity Fell 1.0% in July. Record Travel Did Not Mean Cheaper Flights.

Jul 13, 2026

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3 min read

U.S. Seat Capacity Fell 1.0% in July. Record Travel Did Not Mean Cheaper Flights.

AAA projected 5.85 million domestic air travelers for the July 4 holiday period, a record and up 0.2% from last year. Airline fares rose 26.7% year over year in May, while scheduled U.S. seat capacity for July fell 1.0% from a year earlier. The tape was separating travel demand from the limits of available supply.

Austin Payne

Sentiment

The Fed Modeled $708 Billion in Bank Losses. Capital Still Stayed Well Above the Floor.

Jul 11, 2026

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3 min read

The Fed Modeled $708 Billion in Bank Losses. Capital Still Stayed Well Above the Floor.

On June 24, all 32 large U.S. banks stayed above minimum capital requirements after absorbing $708 billion in modeled losses. Their aggregate common equity tier 1 ratio fell from 12.8% to 11.2%, while several banks announced larger dividends and buybacks. The tape was rewarding balance-sheet strength before real credit losses fully arrive.

Austin Payne

Liquidity

Emergency Demand Cuts Followed a 160-Gigawatt Peak. The AI Buildout Is Testing the Grid.

Jul 9, 2026

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3 min read

Emergency Demand Cuts Followed a 160-Gigawatt Peak. The AI Buildout Is Testing the Grid.

America’s largest power grid served a preliminary 161.9 gigawatts on July 1, 2026, then activated about 6 gigawatts of demand response during the July 2 peak. Wholesale prices in key areas exceeded $2,500 per megawatt-hour. The grid was separating planned AI spending from the physical capacity needed to support it.

Austin Payne

Liquidity

A New Digital Dollar Drew Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock and Coinbase. A Leading Issuer Fell 18%.

Jul 8, 2026

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3 min read

A New Digital Dollar Drew Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock and Coinbase. A Leading Issuer Fell 18%.

More than 140 companies backed the Open USD stablecoin network on June 30, and shares of USDC issuer Circle fell 18%. The group includes major payment networks, financial firms, technology companies and crypto platforms, and it plans to share reserve earnings with participants. The tape was repricing who controls distribution and who keeps the income behind digital dollars.

Austin Payne

Positioning

Unemployment Fell to 4.2%, but 720,000 People Left the Labor Force.

Jul 6, 2026

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3 min read

Unemployment Fell to 4.2%, but 720,000 People Left the Labor Force.

The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110,000 economists expected. Unemployment still fell to 4.2% as 720,000 people left the labor force. The tape was separating a stable unemployment rate from a weaker labor base.

Austin Payne

Sentiment

AAA Expects 72.2 Million July 4 Travelers. The Record Is Barely Growing.

Jul 4, 2026

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3 min read

AAA Expects 72.2 Million July 4 Travelers. The Record Is Barely Growing.

AAA expects 72.2 million Americans to travel between June 27 and July 5, 2026, only about 0.6% above last year’s record. Regular gasoline averaged $3.83 a gallon on June 29, up about 20% from a year earlier on the Iran war's effect on energy prices. The tape was separating a protected holiday trip from broad consumer strength.

Austin Payne

Sentiment

A $15.6 Billion Drop in Orders Hid a 1.6% Rise in Core Business Spending.

Jul 2, 2026

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3 min read

A $15.6 Billion Drop in Orders Hid a 1.6% Rise in Core Business Spending.

U.S. durable-goods orders fell 4.5% to $332.1 billion in May. But orders excluding transportation rose 1.3%, and core capital-goods orders increased 1.6%. The report was separating aircraft volatility from broader business demand.

Austin Payne

Positioning

World Cup Betting Could Pass $50 Billion. The Real Test Comes After July 19.

Jul 1, 2026

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4 min read

World Cup Betting Could Pass $50 Billion. The Real Test Comes After July 19.

Macquarie expects more than $50 billion to be wagered during the 2026 World Cup, up from $35 billion in 2022. DraftKings says its sportsbook handle is already five times the last tournament’s level. The surge is testing whether record attention can become lasting customer growth.

Austin Payne